In the early hours of 13 June, more than 200 Israeli fighter jets began pummeling Iran with bombs, lighting up the Tehran skyline and initiating a 12-day war that would leave hundreds dead.
But for one user of the prediction market Polymarket, it was their lucky day. In the 24 hours before the strike occurred, they had bet tens of thousands of dollars on “yes” on the market “Israel military action against Iran by Friday?” when the prospect still seemed unlikely and odds were hovering at about 10%. After the strike, Polymarket declared that military action had been taken, and paid the user $128,000 for their lucky wager.
But was it just luck?
The Guardian’s analysis of blockchain data traced the wallet to an X account with its location set to Beit Ha’shita, a kibbutz in northern Israel. The user recently transferred their bets to two other accounts, data shows, potentially to avoid detection. There, they currently have 10 live bets relating to Israel’s military strategy.
The X user behind the account could not be reached for comment but Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Security Agency have opened an investigation into the user, officials said last Thursday.
Works as intended.
Exactly. These prediction markets aren’t meant to be “fair”, they’re meant to entice knowledgeable people to expose their knowledge to the world by providing them a way to monetize exposing that knowledge. Insider trading is encouraged here.
polymarket is just gambling for people who don’t want to admit they have gambling problem and
have delusions of propethoodthink that their supreme rationality allows them to predict futureEh, I think there is also some insider betting that goes on. Like, how hard would it be for someone with classified knowledge of attack plans to bet some country is going to get bombed right before pushing the button?
not hard, but it easily becomes classified info leak source which is what it looks like it is investigated as here
Polymarket isn’t gambling. It’s a bounty system.
Large bets are leaked information. The “prediction market” bullshit is to keep from getting prosecuted for offering bribes. No one cares if the people accepting bribes are too dumb to avoid getting caught.
i think that you give them entirely too much credit, they really are this deeply steeped in technolibertarian nonsense
I don’t think the majority of people ever viewed Polymarket as anything but gambling.
you’re on lemmy which means you’re around non-idiots a bit more often than usual. normal people don’t use adblocks and treat chatbots like literal magic, you have to lower your expectations
you make more (consistent) $ just knowing what a spread is. with how this stuff works you should make your $ and be de-risked before the actual event/date goes off, you just need liquidity/volatility to trade into same as the stock market
